Nobody knows the future, so focus on what doesn’t change.

Nobody knows the future, so focus(ˈfōkəs) on what doesn’t change.

By Derek Sivers

At every music conference(ˈkänf(ə)rəns), with a panel(ˈpanl) of experts on stage, the moderator(ˈmädəˌrādər) always asks, “What’s the future of the music business?”

The guy selling video subscriptions(səbˈskripSH(ə)n) will say that videos are the future.

The guy selling intelligent(inˈteləjənt) playlists will say that intelligent playlists are the future.

When they ask me, I always say, “Nobody knows the future, and anyone who pretends(priˈtend) to know can’t be trusted(trəst).”

We have a desperate(ˈdesp(ə)rət) need for certainty(ˈsərtntē), so we want someone to tell us what’s coming. But it’s impossible. Nobody can possibly(ˈpäsəblē) know.

Besides, would it matter what anyone says? Realistically(ˌrēəˈlistik(ə)lē), what would you change about what you’re doing, day-to-day? Like if someone said, “Scented(ˈsen(t)əd) holograms(ˈhäləˌgram,ˈhōlə-) are the future”, would you start making them tomorrow? No.

Instead, forget predicting(prəˈdikt), and focus on what doesn’t change. Just like we know there will be gravity(ˈɡravədē), and water will be wet(wet), we know some things stay the same.

People always love a memorable(ˈmem(ə)rəbəl) melody(ˈmelədē). You can’t know what instrumentation(-men-,ˌinstrəmənˈtāSHən) or production style will be in fashion. So focus on the craft of making great melodies.

People always want an emotional(iˈmōSHənəl) connection. You can’t know what technology will carry(ˈkarē) that communication. So focus on the essence(ˈesəns) of how to connect with an audience(ˈôdēəns).

Writing lots of songs increases your chances of writing a hit. You can’t know which song will be a hit. So write as many songs as you can.

Instead of predicting the future, focus your time and energy(ˈenərjē) on the fundamentals(ˌfəndəˈmentl). The unpredictable(ˌənpriˈdiktəbəl) changes around them are just the details.

https://sivers.org/no-oracle